In a scenario that seems almost impossible, the Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) is facing a severe crisis that could threaten its very existence, even as it enjoys the most glorious period in its history. With October 31st looming—the date the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) expires—negotiations between players and owners have turned into a high-stakes power play. Can the WNBA avert a labor stoppage, or will it face the collapse of an empire it has just begun to build?

A Golden Age Under Threat

The WNBA has just concluded its most successful season ever. Sold-out arenas, record-breaking viewership, and unprecedented media attention have become the new norm. The arrival of generational talents like Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese has breathed new life into the league, transforming women’s basketball from a sport “respected from a distance” into a can’t-miss entertainment phenomenon. ESPN executives have been stunned by the surging ratings, major sponsors are lining up to pour money into the WNBA, and team valuations have skyrocketed. For instance, the Las Vegas Aces, purchased for just $2 million in 2021, are now valued at $310 million. The New York Liberty, once languishing on the market, is now worth $450 million. This isn’t modest growth; it’s an explosion, with franchise values increasing by as much as 15,000% in some cases.

This success stems from a “perfect storm” of talent, timing, and a cultural shift. Caitlin Clark brought millions of new eyes to the league. Angel Reese became a household name. The rookies weren’t just good; they were generational talents. Social media erupted with WNBA content, making women’s basketball “must-see TV.”

However, behind this curtain of success, tensions were simmering. The current labor agreement, originally set to expire in 2026, was opted out of early by the WNBA Players Association (WNBPA) in October 2024, moving the deadline up to October 31, 2025. This move sent a clear message: the players, witnessing the explosion in profits and team values, wanted their piece of the pie now. And honestly, who could blame them?

The War Between Massive Profits and Meager Player Salaries

While owners are becoming wildly wealthy on paper, the maximum salary a WNBA player can currently earn is just $244,000. This figure, while not insignificant, becomes “insulting” when compared to NBA rookies who can earn $10, $20, or even $30 million per year. The gap isn’t just large; it’s a glaring inequity.

This brings the negotiations to their core issue: fair revenue sharing. Under the current CBA, player salaries are largely predetermined, with tiny annual raises of around 3%. While a mechanism exists for salaries to increase based on revenue, it was designed before the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the sports world. The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season, limited attendance in 2021, and made those revenue targets impossible to hit. Consequently, even as the league’s popularity and profitability have exploded over the past two years, the salary structure has remained frozen in time.

The players are demanding something different, something revolutionary for the WNBA: a percentage of revenue that grows as the business grows, similar to what the NBA and NFL have. If the league makes more money, the players make more money—a simple, fair, and logical principle.

However, the latest offer from the league owners, according to WNBPA President Nneka Ogwumike, is “not enough.” Although the owners have proposed quadrupling the maximum salary to over a million dollars, Ogwumike argues it’s the “same broken system, just with bigger numbers.” The percentage of revenue going to players would essentially remain the same. So, while owners watch their franchise values soar, players would still be getting the same small slice of a much, much bigger pie.

Public Discontent and the Power Players

This frustration boiled over during the WNBA All-Star weekend in July. Players walked onto the court wearing black T-shirts with a powerful message: “Pay us what you owe us.” It was a bold, defiant, and impossible-to-ignore statement. Following a meeting with Commissioner Cathy Engelbert and league ownership representatives in Indianapolis, the players were furious, calling it a “missed opportunity.” This implied that the two sides were nowhere near an agreement, and the players were done being silent. Fans in the arena chanted in support, and social media lit up with a clear message: “We’re not backing down.”

However, the situation grew complicated. Even WNBA legend Candace Parker, who has fought for player rights her entire career, criticized the “optics” of the protest. She pointed out that the players wore the protest shirts and then proceeded to give minimal effort during the actual All-Star game, which created a negative impression. In response, players like Aaliyah Boston argued they were exhausted. The WNBA schedule is grueling, and they didn’t need to risk injury in an exhibition game when they were already giving their all in games that matter. This is a fair point, but it highlights the difficult position players are in: they need public support to pressure the league but can’t afford to alienate the very fans who have just fallen in love with their product.

Meanwhile, Commissioner Cathy Engelbert has maintained a calm public facade. She has been all smiles, offering optimistic soundbites about reaching a fair deal and keeping things positive. But make no mistake, behind those carefully crafted statements, the owners are playing hardball. They’re not just worried about money; they’re worried about control. Specifically, they want “prioritization”—a fancy way of saying that if you play in the WNBA, the league comes first, not overseas leagues or the 3-on-3 “Unrivaled” league co-founded by Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier.

And this is where things get spicy: Stewart and Collier, two of the league’s biggest stars and co-founders of Unrivaled, are also on the WNBA’s executive committee. They are literally negotiating the CBA while running a competing basketball league. Both insist there is no conflict of interest, but how could there not be? Collier even wore an Unrivaled shirt during the televised All-Star game roster draft. The message was clear: “We have options; we’re not trapped anymore.”

What Happens Next?

If a deal isn’t reached by October 31st, the nightmare scenario is an offseason lockout. That means players can’t use team facilities to train, free agency freezes, and the expansion draft for Portland and Toronto gets delayed. If negotiations drag into December, January, or February without a resolution, we’re talking about missing actual games in the 2026 season.

At that point, things would become catastrophic. New fans who discovered the league because of Caitlin Clark will move on to something else. Sponsors who just signed deals will have clauses to pull out or reduce payments. Media partners will be furious. And all the momentum, all the cultural relevance the WNBA just earned, will vanish.

Nneka Ogwumike has been very clear about this: nobody wants a lockout. The players are not advocating for a work stoppage, but they also won’t cave just to avoid one. They want this deal done right, even if it takes longer than anyone would like. This is the high-stakes poker game we’re watching in real time: who will blink first? The owners, who just watched their investment value skyrocket and don’t want to risk losing it all? Or the players, who finally have leverage and aren’t willing to wait another decade for fair treatment?

The Bigger Picture for Women’s Sports

This fight is about more than just the WNBA; it’s a defining moment for women’s sports as a whole. The National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) just signed a groundbreaking CBA with real revenue sharing. Women’s hockey is trying to build sustainable professional leagues. Every female athlete in every sport is watching what happens here.

If WNBA players win meaningful revenue sharing, it sets a precedent. It proves that female athletes can and should share in the financial success they create. But if they lose, if they are forced to accept the same old system with slightly bigger numbers, it sends a message that women’s sports, no matter how popular they get, will always be treated as secondary.

There is an economic question that no one can quite answer: are the demands fair? Franchise valuations are astronomical, but are those valuations based on actual revenue and profit, or are they based on speculation about future growth? The NBA subsidized the WNBA’s losses for years; is that debt now paid off, or does the league still owe the NBA for keeping it afloat? The owners argue they took all the risk during the lean years; the players argue they built the product that is now exploding in value. Both sides have a point. This isn’t a simple story of good guys versus bad guys; it’s a complicated negotiation about how to split a pie that’s growing faster than anyone expected.

Possible Scenarios

There are three main potential outcomes:

Best-Case Scenario: They reach a deal before October 31st. Players get real revenue sharing tied to league growth. Owners get prioritization commitments that protect their investment. Expansion moves forward. Everyone celebrates, and the 2026 season starts on time with even more momentum than before.
Compromise Scenario: Negotiations extend into November or December, as they did back in 2020. Perhaps they agree to graduated revenue sharing that increases over time rather than all at once. Perhaps there’s flexibility on prioritization, with some exceptions for international play and national team commitments. Both sides claim partial victory, neither is thrilled, but they move forward.
Nightmare Scenario: A lockout extends through winter into spring. Games get canceled, the 2026 season is gutted or doesn’t happen at all. New fans disappear, sponsors pull back. All those rookie stars—Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, Cameron Brink—lose a year of their prime. Portland and Toronto sit in limbo, and the relationships between players and ownership get so damaged that it takes years to repair the trust. This is the scenario that keeps everyone awake at night.

The Unspoken Wild Card

There’s a wild card that nobody’s talking about enough: Caitlin Clark. She’s been relatively quiet on the CBA stuff, focusing on basketball. But her voice carries more weight than anyone else’s right now. One statement from her could shift public pressure dramatically. Could Stewart and Collier, with their dual roles, actually broker some kind of peace? Will corporate sponsors threaten to pull deals if games get canceled, forcing both sides to compromise? Will the NBA step in to protect its investment and push for a resolution?

The clock is ticking. October 31st is no longer a distant date; it’s right around the corner. And the WNBA is at the most critical crossroads in its 28-year history. On one side is a path to legitimacy, sustainability, and respect: fair revenue sharing, happy players, continued growth, and a league that finally matches the quality of its basketball with the quality of its business practices. On the other side is conflict, mistrust, canceled games, and a potentially catastrophic loss of momentum just when everything was finally coming together.

This is the paradox of success: the WNBA’s CBA crisis is happening precisely because the league finally made it. This negotiation isn’t about survival anymore; it’s about prosperity. It’s about whether the women who make this product great will actually share in the wealth they’re creating. And it’s about whether ownership can see past short-term control and recognize that paying players fairly isn’t just morally right—it’s good business.

So here’s what we know for certain: October 31st is coming. Both sides are dug in. The stakes have never been higher. And what happens in the next few weeks will ripple through women’s professional sports for decades to come. Will the WNBA seize this moment and build something historic, or will they let internal conflict destroy the momentum an entire generation worked to create? We’re about to find out, and trust me, the whole world is watching.