The WNBA is currently sitting in the eye of a storm. While the calendar pages turn and fans eagerly await the tip-off of the 2026 season, a massive cloud of uncertainty hangs over the league. The catalyst? A looming expansion draft for the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire that is frozen in time, waiting on a collective bargaining agreement (CBA) that could reshape the financial landscape of women’s basketball forever.

Amidst this administrative purgatory, ESPN released their protected player predictions, sending fanbases into a collective panic. But a closer look at the lists, particularly for the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky, reveals a game of high-stakes chess where things are not always what they seem.

The “Angel Reese” Strategy: Asset Management 101

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline emerging from the chaos involves Angel Reese and the Chicago Sky. Last season, the tension was palpable; the fit wasn’t working, and Reese’s desire for a change of scenery became an open secret. Yet, reports indicate the Sky plan to protect her in the upcoming expansion draft.

On the surface, this makes no sense. Why use a precious protection slot on a player who wants out? The answer is cold, hard business. Chicago knows they cannot let a young All-Star of Reese’s caliber walk for free to an expansion team. By protecting her, they retain control. They transform her from a flight risk into a trade asset. The goal isn’t to keep her in a Sky uniform for the next decade; it’s to ensure that when she leaves, she brings back a haul of draft picks or players in return. It is a ruthless, smart calculation that contrasts sharply with the emotional reactions of fans.

Sophie Cunningham: The “Unprotected” Panic

In Indianapolis, a different kind of firestorm erupted when fans saw Sophie Cunningham’s name absent from the Fever’s projected protection list. Social media was flooded with accusations of betrayal. How could they leave the heart and soul of the team exposed?

The reality, however, is far less dramatic and far more bureaucratic. Cunningham is an unrestricted free agent. The Fever don’t need to protect her because she isn’t under contract to be stolen in the same way. Unless an expansion team decides to designate her as their “core” player and offer her a maximum contract—a move that would pay her over a million dollars under the proposed new CBA—she remains in control of her destiny.

This distinction is crucial. The lack of protection isn’t a lack of value; it’s a lack of necessity. The Fever are betting that Cunningham won’t be “cored” by Toronto or Portland, allowing them to negotiate with her directly in free agency. It’s a gamble, yes, but a calculated one.

The Golden State Heartbreak

If there is a tragedy in this expansion process, it belongs to the Golden State Valkyries. The league’s newest success story, which sold out the Chase Center and built a rabid fanbase overnight, is about to be punished for its own competence.

Because they can only protect five players, the Valkyries are virtually guaranteed to lose a fan favorite. Names like Monique Billings, Tiffany Hayes, and even rookie sensation Kate Martin—who cracked the top five in jersey sales—are potentially on the chopping block. It is a cruel twist of fate: build a deep, lovable team, and watch the expansion rules force you to dismantle it.

The Million-Dollar Question

Everything hinges on the new CBA. We are talking about a seismic shift where the minimum salary could jump from $60,000 to $220,000, and superstars could command over $1 million annually. This financial revolution is why everything is currently frozen. Expansion teams can’t draft players if they don’t know the salary cap rules. Existing teams can’t make trades if they don’t know the cost of contracts.

The “Caitlin Clark Effect” has brought unprecedented money and attention to the league—Toronto and Portland have already sold out their season tickets before drafting a single player—but it has also raised the stakes. The WNBA must navigate this transition perfectly. If they fumble the CBA or the expansion draft, the momentum of 2024 could crash into a wall of administrative chaos.

For now, fans must wait. Angel Reese might be moving, Sophie Cunningham might be staying, and the Golden State Valkyries might be weeping. The only certainty is that when the dust settles, the WNBA will look completely different.